Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Seattle Mariners 4-1 at T-Mobile Park on July 3, 2024, holding a team that the DiamondIQ model had given a 43 percent pre-game chance of winning and ultimately reducing that probability to zero. Baltimore did its damage in two concentrated bursts, scoring three runs in the third inning and one more in the fifth, while the Mariners managed only a single run across nine frames against an Orioles pitching staff that kept the home side largely at bay.

The decisive sequence came in the third inning against Logan Gilbert, when Ryan O'Hearn delivered a double that swung win probability 17.7 percent in Baltimore's favor, the single largest play of the game. Ryan Mountcastle followed with a single worth an additional 10.0 percent, extending the inning and deepening Seattle's deficit. O'Hearn returned in the fifth to drive another nail into Gilbert's outing with a solo home run, adding 7.4 percent to Baltimore's win probability and pushing the lead to four. Cal Raleigh's home run off Keegan Akin in the sixth provided Seattle's only run and a modest 7.1 percent swing for the Mariners, but it amounted to little more than a footnote. Craig Kimbrel closed things out in the ninth, with Julio Rodriguez's pop out representing the final significant probability shift of the evening at 6.3 percent.

O'Hearn was the unambiguous driver of the Orioles' victory, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-24.6 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.7, accounting for the two most impactful offensive plays of the game. Mountcastle contributed a plus-6.2 percent WPA on the pitching side, Dean Kremer led Baltimore's staff with a plus-15.6 percent WPA, supported by Jacob Webb at plus-7.5 percent and Cionel Pérez at plus-5.2 percent, a collective effort that kept Seattle's lineup largely in check and secured a clean road win.