MLB Recap · July 3, 2024

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

AZ12
Final
LAD4

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
AZ10311201312160
LAD400000000460

The Story

The Arizona Diamondbacks handed the Los Angeles Dodgers a lopsided 12-4 defeat at Dodger Stadium on July 3, 2024, scoring in seven of nine innings and never allowing the home team to recover from an early deficit. The DiamondIQ model entered the game assigning the Dodgers a 66 percent win probability, a figure that collapsed to zero by the final out as Arizona's offense dismantled a parade of Los Angeles pitchers across 16 hits.

The decisive blow came in the third inning when Gabriel Moreno launched a home run off Gavin Stone, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 17.9 percent and effectively broke the game open. Eugenio Suárez added further damage in that same third inning with a double off Stone worth plus 9.0 percent in win probability, compounding the Dodgers' troubles before they could stabilize. The Dodgers' best chance to halt the bleeding came in the bottom of the third when Miguel Rojas hit into a double play off Cristian Mena, a sequence that swung win probability 9.4 percent against Los Angeles and extinguished what little momentum the home side might have generated. Christian Walker kept the pressure on with a home run off Ryan Yarbrough in the fourth, worth plus 11.8 percent, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. added another long ball off Yohan Ramírez in the sixth for plus 16.3 percent, pushing any remaining doubt out of the ballpark.

Among individual performers, Moreno finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 18.9 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.0, while Walker contributed plus 17.8 percent WPA and a team-best RE24 of plus 4.7. Suárez rounded out the top three offensive contributors at plus 15.3 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.6. On the mound, Bryce Jarvis led Arizona's pitching staff with plus 11.4 percent WPA, supported by Joe Mantiply at plus 8.5 percent, as the D-backs' collective effort held the Dodgers to six hits and ensured the final margin was never seriously in question.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025AZ bats firstFinalLAD win %AZ win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 65.7% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Gabriel Moreno Home Run
Top 3rd · off Gavin Stone
+17.9%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Home Run
Top 6th · off Yohan Ramírez
+16.3%
Christian Walker Home Run
Top 4th · off Ryan Yarbrough
+11.8%
Miguel Rojas Double Play
Bot 3rd · off Cristian Mena
-9.4%
Eugenio Suárez Double
Top 3rd · off Gavin Stone
+9.0%

Top Batters by WPA

Gabriel Moreno+18.9%+2.0 RE24
Christian Walker+17.8%+4.7 RE24
Eugenio Suárez+15.3%+2.6 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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