St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates walked off the St. Louis Cardinals 5-4 in ten innings on July 3, 2024, at PNC Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 50 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by game's end. The contest was scoreless through four innings before Pittsburgh broke through with two runs in the fifth against one for St. Louis, and the game remained tight through seven. The Cardinals threatened to take control in the eighth when Willson Contreras launched a home run off Colin Holderman, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 27.7 percent in St. Louis's favor and gave the visitors life heading into the final frames. Pittsburgh answered with a run of its own in the bottom of the seventh to stay within striking distance, but it was the extra innings that defined the game entirely.

The tenth inning delivered the contest's most dramatic sequence in both directions. St. Louis drew first in the top half when Masyn Winn singled off Aroldis Chapman for a plus 32.0 percent win-probability swing, and a Brendan Donovan strikeout in the same frame paradoxically added plus 17.7 percent to the Cardinals' ledger by ending the inning with the lead preserved. Pittsburgh answered decisively in the bottom half against JoJo Romero. Oneil Cruz singled for a plus 29.4 percent swing, setting the stage for Bryan Reynolds, whose walk-off single carried the game's single largest win-probability impact at plus 50.1 percent to close it out.

Winn led all position players with a plus 42.0 percent WPA and plus 2.0 RE24 despite finishing on the losing side, while Reynolds posted plus 39.4 percent WPA and Cruz added plus 31.4 percent to pace Pittsburgh's offense. On the pitching side, Matthew Liberatore provided the Cardinals the most value among arms with plus 15.0 percent WPA, while Jared Jones at plus 8.9 percent and Carmen Mlodzinski at plus 8.5 percent were Pittsburgh's most effective contributors from the mound.