Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox handed the Miami Marlins an 8-3 defeat at loanDepot park on July 2, 2024, a result the DiamondIQ model tracked from a 36 percent pre-game home win probability for Miami all the way down to zero. Boston struck first with a two-run first inning and then broke the game open in the fourth, where the Red Sox plated three more runs against Valente Bellozo. The decisive blow of that frame was a home run by Ceddanne Rafaela, a swing that shifted win probability by 18.7 percent in Boston's favor and effectively removed Miami from contention on its own scoreboard. Masataka Yoshida contributed a single in that same fourth-inning sequence, adding another 2.8 percent to Boston's win probability before a Dominic Smith pop out cost the Red Sox 3.5 percent and ended the threat.

Kutter Crawford was the story on the mound, finishing as the top pitcher by the DiamondIQ model's estimate with a 19.0 percent win-probability contribution across his outing. He did surrender a solo home run to Jake Burger in the bottom of the fifth, a swing worth plus 5.5 percent for Miami and the most impactful offensive moment of the game for the Marlins. Boston added two more in the seventh, highlighted by a Connor Wong single off Declan Cronin that pushed win probability another 3.1 percent toward the visitors, and tacked on one in the eighth to reach the final margin.

By individual WPA, Rafaela finished as Boston's clear offensive standout at plus 16.8 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.0, reflecting how singular his fourth-inning contribution was to the outcome. Yoshida and Burger followed at plus 3.6 and plus 3.7 percent respectively, each posting a RE24 of plus 0.9. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting the fourth inning as the decisive sequence, with Rafaela's home run representing the single largest win-probability event of the game.