New York Mets at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 2 |
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The New York Mets defeated the Washington Nationals 7-2 on July 2, 2024, at Nationals Park, with five of their seven runs coming in a decisive tenth inning that erased what had been a tight, low-scoring contest. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened the game with Washington holding a near-even 49 percent home win probability, and the Nationals remained competitive through nine frames before the Mets broke the game open entirely.
The tenth inning was defined by two swings that shifted the win-probability landscape dramatically. Jose Iglesias delivered a double off Robert Garcia that added 31.3 percentage points to New York's win probability, the single most impactful play of the game. Brandon Nimmo followed with another double off Garcia, adding another 24.0 points and effectively closing the door on Washington. Those two at-bats accounted for more than half of the game's most consequential offensive swing and set the table for the Mets' five-run explosion in the frame. Earlier pivotal moments included Francisco Lindor's home run off DJ Herz in the sixth, which added 12.1 percentage points to New York's chances, and Nimmo's single off Hunter Harvey in the eighth, worth 15.9 points. On the Washington side, Keibert Ruiz's flyout to end the ninth against José Buttó represented the Nationals' single greatest lost opportunity, costing them 17.5 percentage points of win probability.
Nimmo finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-36.3 percent with an RE24 of plus-1.6, his contributions spread across multiple innings and compounding at critical junctures. Iglesias posted a plus-24.5 percent WPA, while Jacob Young led all Nationals batters with a plus-22.1 percent mark and an RE24 of plus-1.0. Among pitchers, DJ Herz led Washington's staff at plus-14.6 percent WPA despite surrendering the Lindor home run, with Kyle Finnegan and Dylan Floro also contributing positively for the Nationals before the tenth-inning collapse rendered their efforts insufficient.