Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Houston Astros 7-6 on July 2, 2024, at Rogers Centre in a game that shifted dramatically across several innings before Toronto held on for the win. The DiamondIQ model opened with an even 50% home win probability, a figure that fluctuated sharply as both clubs traded pivotal blows before the Blue Jays ultimately closed things out at 100%.

The decisive turning point came in the bottom of the third, when George Springer's home run off Spencer Arrighetti swung win probability by 17.7 percentage points, giving Toronto an early foundation. The Blue Jays extended that advantage with two more runs in the fourth, pushing their lead to what looked like a comfortable margin. Houston answered emphatically in the top of the fifth, however, as Yordan Alvarez launched a home run off José Berríos that shifted win probability by 16.9 points, the engine of a five-run frame that pulled the Astros back into contention. Alvarez was Houston's most impactful offensive force on the night, finishing with a WPA of plus-24.2% and an RE24 of plus-2.7. A Jeremy Peña double in the top of the ninth off Chad Green further tightened the drama, adding 20.4 percentage points to Houston's win probability, but the rally fell short. Strikeouts by Joey Loperfido and Trey Cabbage against Green in that same inning collectively erased 24.7 percentage points of Astros win probability and sealed the outcome.

On the Toronto side, Chad Green led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-15.2%, stranding the late Houston threat, while Nate Pearson contributed plus-13.6% and Luis Contreras added plus-6.8%. Springer finished with a WPA of plus-15.7% and an RE24 of plus-1.9, and Peña's efforts — a WPA of plus-16.0% despite the team's loss — underscored just how narrowly Houston came up short. The Blue Jays committed two errors against none for Houston, though the final run differential of one run reflected how genuinely contested the game remained deep into the ninth.