New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees rolled to an 8-1 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on June 30, 2024, a result that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win at 0%, down from a pre-game figure of 38%. New York scored in four of nine innings, putting up two runs each in the first and second frames before adding three more in the fifth to put the game out of reach. The Yankees finished with 12 hits and committed no errors, while Toronto managed just four hits against a Yankees staff that suppressed the Blue Jays throughout.

The game's most consequential sequence came in the third and fifth innings. Gerrit Cole twice turned Toronto's best opportunities against them, first inducing a George Springer double play in the bottom of the third that erased a Justin Turner single and swung win probability by negative 6.5 percentage points against the Blue Jays, then striking out Kevin Kiermaier in the second inning for a swing of negative 8.4 percentage points, the single biggest win-probability play of the game. On the offensive side, DJ LeMahieu's fifth-inning double off Kevin Gausman added 7.6 percentage points to the Yankees' win probability, and Trent Grisham followed with a double off Génesis Cabrera worth an additional 4.8 percentage points, effectively sealing the outcome.

Cole was the dominant figure of the evening by nearly every measure, finishing with a game-best plus-15.5% WPA among pitchers. Among position players, LeMahieu led with plus-8.7% WPA and a RE24 of plus-0.9, while Grisham posted the strongest run-environment contribution at plus-1.6 RE24 alongside a plus-5.5% WPA. Gleyber Torres added plus-5.1% WPA of his own, rounding out a balanced offensive effort that the DiamondIQ model identified as the clearest driver of New York's dominance on the afternoon.