Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins defeated the Seattle Mariners 5-3 at T-Mobile Park on June 30, 2024, handing Seattle a loss despite the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 53 percent home win probability for the Mariners. The game turned on a handful of pivotal plate appearances, none more consequential than Trevor Larnach's eighth-inning home run off Ryne Stanek, which swung win probability 31.7 percent in Minnesota's favor and effectively put the game out of reach. That two-run swing extended what had been a tight contest into a manageable cushion for the Twins bullpen. Earlier, Austin Martin's fifth-inning double off Luis Castillo had shifted momentum by 12.7 percent, setting the table for a two-run Minnesota frame that tied or extended the Twins' advantage in a game that stayed competitive into the late innings.

Seattle's best response came in the bottom of the seventh, when Jorge Polanco's single off Cole Sands moved the needle 16.4 percent toward the Mariners, and Luke Raley's fifth-inning single off Joe Ryan added 12.3 percent, reflecting the moments when Seattle appeared capable of keeping pace. Ultimately, Mitch Haniger's groundout to close the bottom of the ninth represented the game's final significant probability shift, a 14.4 percent swing confirming the Twins' victory as Jhoan Duran secured the final out.

Larnach finished as the game's top offensive performer with a WPA of plus-26.4 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.1, while Raley led Seattle's contributors at plus-17.7 percent WPA. On the mound, Kody Funderburk and Joe Ryan paced Minnesota's pitching staff with WPA figures of plus-13.3 and plus-13.2 percent respectively, with Mike Baumann adding plus-6.6 percent out of the bullpen. Minnesota totaled eight hits against nine for Seattle, but the Twins converted their chances more decisively when it mattered, finishing with a final win probability of 100 percent.