MLB Recap · June 30, 2024

Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Recap

DET7
Final
LAA6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
DET100330000780
LAA000001005690

The Story

The Detroit Tigers held off a late Los Angeles Angels rally to win 7-6 at Angel Stadium on June 30, 2024, completing a game the DiamondIQ model had opened with a 52 percent home win probability for Los Angeles before closing it at zero.

Detroit built its margin early and decisively. Justyn-Henry Malloy's home run off Tyler Anderson in the fourth inning was the game's single largest batting swing at plus 15.4 percent win probability, and Wenceel Pérez followed with a double off Anderson in that same frame, adding another 8.1 percent. The Tigers had pushed three runs across in the fourth and added three more in the fifth, with Carson Kelly's home run off Andrew Wantz contributing a plus 9.4 percent swing that extended the lead and gave Detroit a cushion it would ultimately need. Los Angeles managed only a single run through the first eight innings, but the Angels mounted a five-run ninth that brought the game to its final margin of one.

The biggest play of the night, however, belonged to the pitching side. With Los Angeles threatening to complete the comeback in the bottom of the ninth, Tyler Holton struck out Nolan Schanuel to end the game, a moment that registered plus 31.6 percent win probability. On the mound, Casey Mize was Detroit's standout with plus 21.9 percent WPA, anchoring the effort through the middle innings and helping neutralize the Angels offense when it mattered most. Malloy finished as the top offensive contributor at plus 18.8 percent WPA and plus 1.9 RE24, while Kelly's plus 11.0 percent WPA and plus 2.6 RE24 reflected the value of his fifth-inning blow.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025DET bats firstFinalLAA win %DET win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 52.1% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Nolan Schanuel Strikeout
Bot 9th · off Tyler Holton
+31.6%
Justyn-Henry Malloy Home Run
Top 4th · off Tyler Anderson
+15.4%
Zach Neto Grounded Into DP
Bot 2nd · off Casey Mize
-10.2%
Carson Kelly Home Run
Top 5th · off Andrew Wantz
+9.4%
Wenceel Pérez Double
Top 4th · off Tyler Anderson
+8.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Nolan Schanuel+27.8%-0.2 RE24
Justyn-Henry Malloy+18.8%+1.9 RE24
Carson Kelly+11.0%+2.6 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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