MLB Recap · June 30, 2024

Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

COL5
Final
CWS4

Line Score

Team1234567891011121314RHE
COL02000000010011560
CWS000100100100104101

The Story

The Colorado Rockies outlasted the Chicago White Sox 5-4 in 14 innings on June 30, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field, handing Chicago a tough extra-innings loss despite the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate giving the White Sox a 47 percent chance to win at home. The game was knotted through nine regulation innings and stretched deep into extras, with both clubs trading runs in the tenth and thirteenth before Colorado finally broke through in the fourteenth. The Rockies finished with six hits and committed no errors, while Chicago collected ten hits but was undone by one error and an inability to close things out in the late stages.

The biggest swing of the night came in the bottom of the thirteenth, when Luis Robert Jr. singled off Jalen Beeks to swing win probability by 52.6 percent in Chicago's favor, briefly putting the White Sox on the doorstep of a walk-off victory. However, Colorado answered immediately in the top of the fourteenth, with Ezequiel Tovar's single off Michael Soroka earlier in extra innings having already shifted the balance by 37.3 percent toward the Rockies. Ultimately, Nicky Lopez grounded out in the bottom of the fourteenth off Beeks in a play that added 31.6 percent to Colorado's win probability, as the out strand Chicago's runners and sealed the Rockies' victory. Tommy Pham's lineout in the tenth and Nolan Jones's strikeout in the fourteenth also proved pivotal in Colorado's favor, each representing swings of better than 23 percent by the DiamondIQ model's estimate.

On the individual side, Nicky Lopez led all batters with a WPA of plus-51.1 percent, while Luis Robert Jr. posted plus-48.0 percent despite his team ultimately falling short. Andrew Vaughn contributed a strong plus-32.8 percent WPA and led position players with a RE24 of plus-2.0, suggesting he created the most run-value impact on the night. On the mound, Kyle Freeland paced Colorado's pitching corps with a WPA of plus-18.4 percent, while Garrett Crochet turned in a plus-17.6 percent mark for Chicago and Michael Kopech added plus-13.5 percent, though their efforts were ultimately not enough to prevent Colorado from escaping with the win in 14 innings.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025COL bats firstFinalCWS win %COL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 47.2% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Luis Robert Jr. Single
Bot 13th · off Jalen Beeks
+52.6%
Ezequiel Tovar Single
Top 13th · off Michael Soroka
+37.3%
Nicky Lopez Groundout
Bot 14th · off Jalen Beeks
+31.6%
Tommy Pham Lineout
Bot 10th · off Nick Mears
+23.7%
Nolan Jones Strikeout
Top 14th · off Michael Soroka
+23.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Nicky Lopez+51.1%+0.4 RE24
Luis Robert Jr.+48.0%-0.2 RE24
Andrew Vaughn+32.8%+2.0 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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