Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals shut out the Cincinnati Reds 2-0 on June 30, 2024, at Busch Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 59% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% by game's end. The Cardinals manufactured both of their runs in back-to-back innings against a Cincinnati pitching staff that otherwise kept the game scoreless through four frames, and St. Louis needed nothing more to claim the victory.

The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the fifth, when Alec Burleson's single off Hunter Greene delivered the game's single largest win-probability swing at plus 15.5 points, giving St. Louis its first run and fundamentally tilting the contest. Brendan Donovan's groundout off Sam Moll and Paul Goldschmidt's flyout off Greene each represented negative swings of 7.0 and 6.8 points respectively, moments where Cincinnati had brief opportunities to limit the damage but could not capitalize. Masyn Winn then extended the Cardinals' advantage in the bottom of the sixth with a double off Fernando Cruz, a plus 12.4-point swing that essentially sealed the outcome. Spencer Steer drew a walk off Andrew Kittredge in the top of the seventh for a plus 6.0-point swing, the Reds' most meaningful moment of the night, but Cincinnati's offense finished with just two hits and never seriously threatened.

Lance Lynn headlined the pitching performance with a game-leading plus 24.8 WPA, supported by JoJo Romero at plus 11.3 and Sam Moll at plus 8.3, as the Cardinals' staff collectively held Cincinnati to that meager two-hit output. Among position players, Burleson finished at plus 11.4 WPA with a plus 1.0 RE24, Winn matched him nearly identically at plus 11.3 WPA and plus 0.7 RE24, and Pedro Pagés contributed plus 9.2 WPA and plus 0.6 RE24 to round out St. Louis's most impactful performers in a clean, error-free game for both sides.