Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| KC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - | 6 | 11 | 0 |
The Story
The Kansas City Royals defeated the Cleveland Guardians 6-2 on June 30, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected in a steady climb from a 45 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Kansas City built its advantage incrementally, scoring single runs in the first and second innings before pulling away with two-run frames in the fifth and seventh. Cleveland managed just two runs in the eighth, far too late to alter the outcome. The Guardians finished with eight hits and an error against no errors for the Royals, who compiled 11 hits on the night.
The fifth inning contained the game's most consequential sequence by win-probability impact. Bobby Witt Jr. delivered a triple off Eli Morgan that shifted the win probability 5.6 percent in Kansas City's favor, and Vinnie Pasquantino followed with a single that moved the needle an additional 6.4 percent, the single largest positive swing of the game. The Guardians had their own moment in the top of the fifth when Bo Naylor singled off Seth Lugo for a 4.8 percent swing, but Kansas City's bottom-half response neutralized any momentum Cleveland could generate. Earlier, Brayan Rocchio's strikeout against Lugo in the second inning represented the sharpest negative swing for Cleveland at minus 6.6 percent.
Seth Lugo was the dominant individual performer of the night, finishing with a WPA of plus 29.6 percent, far outpacing every other contributor in the game. Witt Jr. led Kansas City's offense with a WPA of plus 8.6 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.0, while Pasquantino added a WPA of plus 5.1 percent and the game's top RE24 mark of plus 1.6. Bo Naylor was the lone Guardian to register a positive WPA figure at plus 6.2 percent with a RE24 of plus 0.7, though his contributions came too late and in too isolated a fashion to threaten Lugo and the Royals bullpen combination of Will Smith and James McArthur, who combined to add another 3.6 percent to Kansas City's win probability in the final innings.