MLB Recap · June 30, 2024

Oakland Athletics at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

OAK1
Final
AZ5

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
OAK000010000150
AZ00010031-581

The Story

The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Oakland Athletics 5-1 at Chase Field on June 30, 2024, in a game the DiamondIQ model had Arizona favored at 68% before first pitch and ultimately closed at 100%. The Diamondbacks managed to keep the game scoreless through three innings before Christian Walker broke through in the bottom of the fourth with a run-scoring single off Luis Medina, a play worth 7.3% in win probability. Oakland answered in the top of the fifth when Zack Gelof connected on a home run off Brandon Pfaadt, the single largest swing in Oakland's favor all night at plus 12.3%. That momentum evaporated immediately, however, when JJ Bleday grounded into a double play on the very next significant sequence, costing the Athletics 12.2% in win probability and effectively neutralizing Gelof's effort.

Arizona seized control for good in the bottom of the seventh, delivering the decisive blow in a three-run frame against Oakland's bullpen. Corbin Carroll's double off T.J. McFarland added 11.6% to Arizona's win probability, and Blaze Alexander followed with a single off Austin Adams that pushed the needle another 14.2%, putting the game out of reach at plus 1 run on the night for Arizona in that inning alone. The Diamondbacks added one more in the eighth to set the final margin at 5-1, finishing with eight hits against Oakland's pitching staff.

Christian Walker led all position players by WPA at plus 18.7% with a RE24 of plus 1.8, making him the clear offensive catalyst for Arizona. Blaze Alexander contributed plus 14.2% WPA as the key run-producer in the seventh, while Brent Rooker paced Oakland's modest offense with plus 5.5% WPA. On the mound, Luis Medina was the standout performer despite allowing a run, generating plus 25.5% WPA by keeping Arizona's lineup in check through his outing. Joe Mantiply and Brandon Pfaadt each contributed over plus 8% WPA in relief and starting roles respectively, reflecting the model's view that Arizona's pitching largely controlled the contest from the opening frame forward.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025OAK bats firstFinalAZ win %OAK win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 67.6% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Blaze Alexander Single
Bot 7th · off Austin Adams
+14.2%
Zack Gelof Home Run
Top 5th · off Brandon Pfaadt
+12.3%
JJ Bleday Grounded Into DP
Top 5th · off Brandon Pfaadt
-12.2%
Corbin Carroll Double
Bot 7th · off T.J. McFarland
+11.6%
Christian Walker Single
Bot 4th · off Luis Medina
+7.3%

Top Batters by WPA

Christian Walker+18.7%+1.8 RE24
Blaze Alexander+14.2%+0.8 RE24
Brent Rooker+5.5%+0.1 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
Open Game Center →