MLB Recap · June 29, 2024

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

NYY3
Final
TOR9

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
NYY000010002380
TOR20010501-9141

The Story

The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the New York Yankees 9-3 on June 29, 2024, at Rogers Centre, turning what the DiamondIQ model estimated as a 39 percent pre-game home win probability into a near-certainty by the middle stages of the game. Toronto built its advantage incrementally, scoring two runs in the first inning and adding another in the fourth before a five-run sixth inning effectively closed out any realistic path back for New York. The Yankees finished with eight hits and no errors, while the Blue Jays collected 14 hits and committed one error across the nine innings.

The game's decisive turning point arrived in the top of the sixth, when Austin Wells hit into a strikeout double play off Chris Bassitt, a sequence that carried a win-probability swing of negative 10.5 percent for the Yankees and reinforced Toronto's stranglehold on the contest. Earlier, in the top of the second, Oswaldo Cabrera grounded out in a costly spot, costing New York 9.9 percent in win probability against the same pitcher. On the Toronto side, Alejandro Kirk's double off Nestor Cortes in the bottom of the fourth registered as the game's single most impactful positive play for the Blue Jays at plus 8.6 percent, while Kevin Kiermaier's strikeout in the second added 7.4 percent to Toronto's ledger by stranding a threat. Aaron Judge's fifth-inning single provided the Yankees their lone bright moment by WPA, adding 7.4 percent to their chances before the six-run sixth ultimately rendered it moot.

Chris Bassitt was the clear standout performer across all categories, finishing with a DiamondIQ model WPA of plus 28.8 percent as he worked through the Yankees lineup and limited the damage across the innings he navigated. Reliever Jake Cousins added another 8.4 percent in win probability for Toronto after Bassitt's exit. Among position players, Kirk led all batters with a plus 10.2 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.0, followed by Aaron Judge at plus 8.7 percent WPA despite being on the losing side, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa at plus 7.5 percent WPA with the game's top RE24 of plus 1.6 among the highlighted performers.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025NYY bats firstFinalTOR win %NYY win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 38.6% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Austin Wells Strikeout Double Play
Top 6th · off Chris Bassitt
-10.5%
Oswaldo Cabrera Groundout
Top 2nd · off Chris Bassitt
-9.9%
Alejandro Kirk Double
Bot 4th · off Nestor Cortes
+8.6%
Aaron Judge Single
Top 5th · off Chris Bassitt
+7.4%
Kevin Kiermaier Strikeout
Bot 2nd · off Nestor Cortes
+7.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Alejandro Kirk+10.2%+1.0 RE24
Aaron Judge+8.7%+1.0 RE24
Isiah Kiner-Falefa+7.5%+1.6 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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