MLB Recap · June 29, 2024

San Diego Padres at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

SD11
Final
BOS1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
SD01216001011160
BOS000001000163

The Story

The San Diego Padres routed the Boston Red Sox 11-1 at Fenway Park on June 29, 2024, in a game that was never particularly close after the early innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with Boston holding a 53% win probability, but that figure collapsed steadily as San Diego built an insurmountable advantage, finishing at 0%. The Padres posted 16 hits against a Boston defense that committed three errors, while San Diego played a clean game in the field.

The decisive damage came in waves against Red Sox starter Tanner Houck. The single most consequential moment of the game was Manny Machado's third-inning home run off Houck, a swing that shifted win probability by 18.4 percentage points in San Diego's favor. Ha-Seong Kim's single in the second inning had already opened a 6.3-point crack in Boston's position, and Jackson Merrill followed with another home run off Houck in the fourth that added another 7.0 points of swing. The fifth inning brought a six-run eruption that effectively ended any realistic Boston comeback, pushing the final margin to ten runs. Wilyer Abreu's fourth-inning double was Boston's most productive moment at 5.3 percentage points gained, but it came in a losing effort against Michael King, who turned in the game's strongest pitching performance.

By the WPA and RE24 measures tracked by the DiamondIQ model, Machado was the clear standout with a cumulative WPA of plus-21.1% and an RE24 of plus-3.4. Merrill contributed plus-7.7% WPA and plus-1.9 RE24, while Kim added plus-5.4% WPA. On the mound, Michael King led all pitchers with a plus-18.0% WPA, anchoring a Padres staff that gave Boston no path back into the contest.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025SD bats firstFinalBOS win %SD win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 52.9% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Manny Machado Home Run
Top 3rd · off Tanner Houck
+18.4%
Jackson Merrill Home Run
Top 4th · off Tanner Houck
+7.0%
Ha-Seong Kim Single
Top 2nd · off Tanner Houck
+6.3%
Wilyer Abreu Double
Bot 4th · off Michael King
+5.3%
Connor Wong Pop Out
Bot 2nd · off Michael King
-4.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Manny Machado+21.1%+3.4 RE24
Jackson Merrill+7.7%+1.9 RE24
Ha-Seong Kim+5.4%+0.9 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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