Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the San Francisco Giants 14-7 on June 29, 2024, at Oracle Park in a game that remained competitive deep into extra innings before Los Angeles pulled away decisively in the eleventh. The DiamondIQ model opened with the Giants holding a 40% home win probability, and while San Francisco built a 4-1 lead through three innings and added a run in the fifth, the Dodgers chipped away and forced extras, ultimately exhausting the Giants bullpen. By the final out, the model's estimate had fallen to 0% for San Francisco, a collapse that unfolded in two dramatic extra-inning half-innings.

The tenth inning carried the game's most pivotal sequence. David Villar delivered a double off Daniel Hudson that swung win probability by plus 47.1 points in San Francisco's favor, the single largest swing of the night, momentarily giving the Giants command of the extra-inning frame. Heliot Ramos added a single off Hudson worth plus 20.5 points, compounding the threat. However, Patrick Bailey's strikeout against Hudson negated 20.5 points of that leverage, and the Giants failed to extend the lead enough to survive the Dodgers' response. In the top of the eleventh, Will Smith delivered the knockout blow, a double off Sean Hjelle that swung win probability plus 43.0 points toward Los Angeles and ignited a seven-run frame that put the game firmly out of reach.

Smith finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, contributing plus 52.4% in win probability and a RE24 of plus 2.2. Freddie Freeman posted the highest RE24 among hitters at plus 2.8 alongside a plus 31.4% WPA, while Villar's plus 47.1% WPA reflected his outsized, if ultimately futile, impact. On the pitching side, Ryan Walker led San Francisco's staff with a plus 21.8% WPA, followed by Camilo Doval at plus 13.5% and Blake Treinen at plus 10.9% for Los Angeles.