Houston Astros at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 2 |
| NYM | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
The Houston Astros erased a five-run second-inning deficit and pulled away from the New York Mets 9-6 on June 29, 2024, at Citi Field, completing a comeback that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Mets win at 0% by the final out. New York had surged out of the gate with five runs in the bottom of the second, but Houston answered with three in the fourth — Jon Singleton delivering the pivotal blow on a single off Tylor Megill that registered +11.5% in win probability — and then delivered the knockout in the eighth, scoring three more to take command for good.
The eighth inning was where the game was truly decided. With Reed Garrett on the mound for New York, Alex Bregman stroked a single that swung win probability by +25.5%, the single largest play of the contest, and a subsequent Jose Altuve walk added another +14.8%, turning what remained a tense game into an Astros advantage that New York could not overcome. Brandon Nimmo's groundout against Ryan Pressly in the bottom of the eighth, which shifted win probability by -16.5% against the Mets, effectively closed the door on any rally. Mauricio Dubón extended the lead further with a double off Danny Young in the ninth for an additional +12.0% swing.
Bregman finished as the top offensive contributor by win probability added at +18.9% with a RE24 of +0.6, while Singleton posted +17.0% and a RE24 of +1.4, and Jeremy Peña contributed +13.9% with a team-best RE24 of +1.8. On the pitching side, Ryan Pressly was the standout reliever with a model-leading +23.3% win probability added, followed by Ty Adcock at +14.2% and Tayler Scott at +6.0%, a collective bullpen effort that protected Houston's late lead and secured the road victory.