Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 6-1 at Truist Park on June 28, 2024, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 62 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Pittsburgh managed just one run on six hits, while Atlanta collected ten hits and committed no errors in a thoroughly one-sided affair.

The game turned decisively in the bottom of the third inning, where Atlanta inflicted all the decisive damage against Pirates starter Martín Pérez. Marcell Ozuna's double in that frame carried the single largest win-probability swing of the night, adding 11.5 percent to Atlanta's chances, and Matt Olson followed with a single worth 4.9 percent, while a Jarred Kelenic walk and an Ozzie Albies single contributed 4.4 and 4.1 percent respectively. The foundation had actually been laid an inning earlier, when Austin Riley launched a home run off Pérez that moved Atlanta's win probability by 7.4 percent, the second-biggest play of the contest.

Among individual performers, Ozuna led all batters with a WPA of plus-11.5 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.7, while Riley finished at plus-6.7 percent WPA. On the mound, Charlie Morton was the standout, contributing plus-8.1 percent WPA as Atlanta's pitching staff held Pittsburgh to a single run scored entirely in the ninth inning, long after the outcome had ceased to be in doubt.