Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 16 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds handed the St. Louis Cardinals a decisive 11-4 defeat at Busch Stadium on June 27, 2024, piling up 16 hits and never allowing the Cardinals to threaten in a game that ended with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a St. Louis win falling from 58 percent before first pitch all the way to zero. Cincinnati scored in five of nine innings, building leads in the early frames and pulling away steadily, while Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas and the St. Louis bullpen could not contain a Reds lineup that generated damage throughout the order.
The most consequential swing of the night came in the top of the fourth inning, when Spencer Steer connected on a home run off Mikolas that shifted Cincinnati's win probability by plus 12.7 percent, the single largest positive play of the contest. St. Louis had briefly answered a two-run Cincinnati third with a Nolan Arenado home run off Andrew Abbott in the bottom half, a plus 11.6 percent swing that momentarily kept the Cardinals within reach. But two Cardinals at-bats further illustrated how St. Louis squandered opportunities: Masyn Winn's pop out in the second inning cost the Cardinals 8.8 percent in win probability, and Brendan Donovan's forceout in the first accounted for a 6.3 percent drop. Noelvi Marte's double off Mikolas in the third, worth plus 6.9 percent, was another early blow that helped Cincinnati seize control before Steer's fourth-inning shot pushed the deficit beyond recovery.
Steer finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a plus 17.7 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.7. Marte contributed plus 7.5 percent WPA alongside a RE24 of plus 0.9, while Arenado's home run made him the Cardinals' lone bright spot at plus 9.8 percent WPA. On the mound, Andrew Abbott led all pitchers with a plus 10.7 percent WPA, absorbing the Arenado blow but limiting St. Louis enough to preserve the comfortable Cincinnati margin. Sam Moll and Ryan Fernandez each finished at 0.0 percent WPA in relief.