Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the San Francisco Giants 5-3 in ten innings at Oracle Park on June 27, 2024, overcoming a late Giants rally to secure the road win. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with San Francisco holding a 55 percent pre-game win probability, but that figure fell to zero by the final out. The Cubs struck first in the third inning when Nico Hoerner connected on a home run off Jordan Hicks, a swing that added 13.4 percent to Chicago's win probability and gave Hoerner a final WPA of plus-20.4 percent on the night. San Francisco answered in the sixth, with Luis Matos delivering a single off Shota Imanaga that shifted win probability 27.0 percent in the Giants' favor, the largest single-play swing of the regulation innings, and Matos finished as San Francisco's standout offensive contributor at plus-23.8 percent WPA and plus-1.5 RE24. The Giants managed to knot or threaten through nine, but Patrick Bailey's strikeout against Héctor Neris to close the bottom of the ninth added 14.0 percent to Chicago's chances and pushed the game to extras.

In the tenth, Ian Happ delivered the decisive blow, launching a home run off Luke Jackson that swung win probability 56.1 percent toward Chicago in a single moment, the largest leverage play of the entire game. Happ's two-run shot accounted for the decisive margin, and he finished as the game's top performer with a WPA of plus-49.0 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.7. The Giants went quietly in the bottom of the tenth, with Wilmer Flores ending the threat on a pop out against Porter Hodge that added another 12.0 percent to the Cubs' probability. On the pitching side, San Francisco's Sean Hjelle led all pitchers in WPA at plus-13.5 percent, followed by Tyson Miller at plus-10.9 percent and Ryan Walker at plus-10.6 percent, though their efforts ultimately could not offset Happ's extra-inning damage.