MLB Recap · June 25, 2024

New York Yankees at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

NYY7
Final
NYM9

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
NYY000010150772
NYM12030300-9121

The Story

The New York Mets defeated the New York Yankees 9-7 at Citi Field on June 25, 2024, in a game that was never particularly close despite a late Yankees surge. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving the Mets just a 39% chance of winning at home, but that estimate climbed steadily as New York's National League club built a commanding lead through six innings before closing out at 100%. The Mets scored in four of the first six innings, plating runs in the first, second, fourth, and sixth frames while holding the Yankees scoreless until the fifth.

The decisive stretch came early against Yankees starter Gerrit Cole, who was tagged for several damaging blows. In the bottom of the second, Mark Vientos launched a home run off Cole that shifted win probability by 6.7 percentage points, and Brandon Nimmo contributed a flyout in the same inning that added another 9.5 points in a bases-loaded context, reflecting the damage already done and the threat Nimmo represented. Nimmo then went deep off Cole again in the bottom of the fourth for a 6.8-point swing, steadily burying the Yankees' chances. The Yankees mounted their most significant response in the top of the eighth, when Aaron Judge hit a home run off Reed Garrett for a 9.0-point swing, but by that point the deficit was too large to overcome, and the inning produced only a modest five-run frame against the Mets bullpen.

Brandon Nimmo finished as the game's most impactful player by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a cumulative WPA of plus-17.1 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.5. Mark Vientos was nearly as influential at plus-12.3 percent WPA and plus-1.6 RE24. On the pitching side, starter David Peterson was the clear standout, generating plus-16.3 percent WPA while holding the Yankees in check through the bulk of his outing. Dedniel Núñez added plus-7.0 percent WPA in relief. Aaron Judge led all Yankees contributors with plus-10.3 percent WPA and a game-high RE24 of plus-5.3, though his efforts came too late to alter the outcome. The Yankees finished with two errors against one for the Mets, a disparity that reflected the night's broader imbalance.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025NYY bats firstFinalNYM win %NYY win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 38.9% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Brandon Nimmo Flyout
Bot 2nd · off Gerrit Cole
+9.5%
Aaron Judge Home Run
Top 8th · off Reed Garrett
+9.0%
Anthony Volpe Strikeout
Top 2nd · off David Peterson
-7.7%
Brandon Nimmo Home Run
Bot 4th · off Gerrit Cole
+6.8%
Mark Vientos Home Run
Bot 2nd · off Gerrit Cole
+6.7%

Top Batters by WPA

Brandon Nimmo+17.1%+2.5 RE24
Mark Vientos+12.3%+1.6 RE24
Aaron Judge+10.3%+5.3 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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