Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| HOU | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 5 | 9 | 1 |
The Story
The Houston Astros defeated the Colorado Rockies 5-2 on June 25, 2024, at Minute Maid Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 69 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the game's end. Houston did the bulk of its damage in the opening frame, plating all five of its runs in the bottom of the first inning against Austin Gomber, effectively turning the contest into a formality before most of the lineup had batted twice. Colorado managed only two runs, both arriving late in the eighth and ninth innings, finishing with six hits and no errors while Houston posted nine hits and one error of its own.
The decisive plays came early and cut sharply against Colorado. Joey Loperfido's groundout in the bottom of the first added 5.0 percent win probability for Houston within the context of that already-productive frame, while Yainer Diaz's forceout in the second added another 5.1 percent, compounding the Astros' advantage. On the other side, Michael Toglia's flyout in the top of the second represented the single most damaging moment for the Rockies by win-probability impact, costing Colorado 6.4 percent at a point when the deficit still theoretically allowed for a comeback. Ryan McMahon's groundout in the first and Nolan Jones's strikeout in the fourth each added to Houston's growing margin of control.
Hunter Brown was the story of this game by the numbers, posting a plus-13.1 percent WPA to lead all pitchers, holding Colorado in check inning after inning and allowing the Astros' early burst to stand as the final margin. Yainer Diaz led all batters at plus-6.9 percent WPA with a plus-0.5 RE24, and Loperfido contributed plus-4.8 percent WPA, though his RE24 of minus-0.6 reflects the situational context of his plate appearances. Brendan Rodgers was the lone Rockies contributor worth noting by these measures, finishing at plus-3.0 percent WPA and plus-0.7 RE24. Tayler Scott and Ryan Pressly each added modest positive WPA contributions in relief to close out the win.