Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

The Detroit Tigers defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 4-1 at Comerica Park on June 25, 2024, in a game that was far more lopsided than the final run total suggests. The DiamondIQ model entered with the Tigers as a 35% home-win favorite, but by game's end that figure had climbed to 100%, with virtually all of the decisive action concentrated in a single fifth-inning burst that turned a scoreless pitchers' duel into a comfortable Detroit victory.

The fifth inning was where the game was effectively decided. Ryan Kreidler's fielder's choice off Ranger Suarez shifted win probability by plus 10.1%, and Andy Ibanez followed with a single that added another plus 9.7%, together accounting for the two biggest positive swings of the night for Detroit. Those plays, combined with additional fifth-inning damage, produced all four Tigers runs against Suarez. On the Philadelphia side, the Phillies' best opportunities were extinguished early and quietly, with Cristian Pache's strikeout in the second inning costing minus 6.9% in win probability, Alec Bohm's groundout in the third draining another minus 6.2%, and Bryce Harper grounding into a double play in the first absorbing a minus 5.0% swing, all three coming against Tarik Skubal.

Skubal was the dominant individual performer by a wide margin, finishing with plus 36.0% WPA, a figure that dwarfed every other contributor in the game. He systematically erased Philadelphia's lineup, with Harper, Bohm, and Pache among the notable outs he collected at critical junctures. Kreidler led all batters at plus 13.9% WPA with a plus 1.9 RE24, and Riley Greene added plus 5.4% WPA in support. Shelby Miller and Jason Foley handled the later innings without incident for Detroit. The Phillies' lone run came in the ninth, long after the outcome was settled.