Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays handed the Boston Red Sox a 9-4 defeat at Fenway Park on June 25, 2024, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 62 percent pre-game home win probability for Boston and reducing it to zero by the final out. The game turned almost entirely on a seven-run Toronto third inning that overwhelmed starter Brayan Bello and effectively ended Boston's competitive window before the game reached its midpoint. The Red Sox had briefly generated momentum in the bottom of the second when Rafael Devers launched a home run off Kevin Gausman that carried a win-probability swing of plus 7.4 percent, giving Boston an early 2-0 lead, but Toronto's response in the third was overwhelming and left that lead in ruins.

The decisive sequence in the third inning was driven by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., whose double off Bello represented the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 18.3 percent, the central moment in a rally that also featured a George Springer home run worth plus 8.0 percent, a Kevin Kiermaier single at plus 7.4 percent, and an Isiah Kiner-Falefa single at plus 6.6 percent, all against Bello. Toronto added two more runs in the fourth to extend the lead to 9-2 before Boston scored a pair in the sixth to set the final margin. Guerrero Jr. finished as the game's most impactful offensive player by a wide margin, posting a combined WPA of plus 25.3 percent and an RE24 of plus 2.7. Tyler O'Neill contributed plus 10.1 percent WPA and plus 2.4 RE24, while Kiermaier finished at plus 7.8 percent WPA. Toronto's bullpen, led by Brendon Little at plus 1.7 percent WPA, held Boston scoreless over the final three innings to close out a game Toronto controlled from the third inning forward.