Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | 4 | 6 | 1 |
The Story
The Kansas City Royals defeated the Miami Marlins 4-1 on June 24, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 72% home win probability and closing at 100% as the Royals pulled away behind a dominant offensive fourth inning and three solo home runs. Miami managed just four hits and avoided an error on the night, but the Marlins' lone run came in the third on a Bryan De La Cruz double off Cole Ragans, a swing that briefly shifted the game's probability by plus 11.8%, representing the single largest positive win-probability moment for the visiting club all evening.
Kansas City answered emphatically in the bottom of the fourth, where Roddery Muñoz absorbed the decisive damage. Vinnie Pasquantino connected for a home run that swung win probability by plus 11.9%, and Salvador Perez followed with a home run of his own worth plus 11.4%, the two blasts combining to flip the game's momentum irrevocably. Hunter Renfroe added a solo shot in the sixth, contributing plus 8.7% in win probability, effectively closing out any remaining uncertainty. Notably, a CJ Alexander strikeout against Muñoz in the second inning had dented Kansas City's win probability by minus 8.8%, suggesting the Royals left some earlier opportunity unrealized before Pasquantino and Perez delivered.
Among individual performers, Perez led Kansas City's position players with a plus 7.9% WPA and 0.3 RE24, while De La Cruz paced Miami with plus 7.5% WPA and 0.6 RE24 despite being on the losing side. Renfroe contributed plus 6.0% WPA and 0.7 RE24, the highest RE24 among the top three batters. On the mound, Ragans led all pitchers with plus 5.6% WPA, followed by Chris Stratton at plus 5.0% and John Schreiber at plus 4.5%, as Kansas City's pitching staff collectively held the Marlins to one run across nine innings.