Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians held on to beat the Baltimore Orioles 3-2 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 24, 2024, handing Baltimore a loss despite the DiamondIQ model entering the game with a 51% home win probability. Cleveland scored in each of the first two innings and added the decisive run in the sixth on a José Ramírez home run off Cade Povich, a swing that shifted win probability 13.7 points in Cleveland's favor. Baltimore answered with runs in the first and third but never managed to pull ahead, and the Guardians' one-run lead held through the final out.

The game's defining sequence came in the ninth inning, where Scott Barlow closed out Baltimore with the winning moment arriving on a Ryan Mountcastle strikeout that registered the single largest win-probability swing of the contest at plus 31.6 points for Cleveland. A Jordan Westburg strikeout to end the game dropped Baltimore's remaining chances by another 8.5 points, completing a failed rally. The Orioles had flirted with momentum in the eighth, where Heston Kjerstad's flyout off Hunter Gaddis cost Baltimore 16.5 points of win probability and effectively stalled their best scoring opportunity of the late innings.

On the pitching side, Hunter Gaddis led all pitchers with a plus 23.3% WPA, followed by starter Tanner Bibee at plus 19.7% and Tim Herrin contributing plus 9.7% in a strong collective bullpen effort. Ramírez finished as the top offensive contributor by combined impact, posting plus 8.3% WPA and a 1.2 RE24, while Mountcastle's ninth-inning strikeout made him the highest individual WPA figure among all batters despite a negative RE24 of minus 0.1. The DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at 0% for Baltimore, reflecting how thoroughly Cleveland controlled the final outcome.