Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 7-6 at Fenway Park on June 24, 2024, in a game that swung dramatically across its final three innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Boston a 63% win probability, and while that edge appeared threatened through seven innings, it closed at 100% after a walk-off ninth. The scoring was sparse early, with Toronto drawing first in the fourth on a Justin Turner single off Tanner Houck, which added 14.4% in win probability for the Blue Jays. Boston answered immediately when Rafael Devers launched a home run off Chris Bassitt in the bottom half, a swing worth 22.8% in win probability that gave the Red Sox an early two-run lead and set the tone for what Bassitt would go on to contribute, finishing among the top pitchers by WPA at plus 12.1%.

The game's most violent swing came in the top of the seventh, when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. crushed a home run off Isaiah Campbell that added 33.8% in win probability for Toronto, capping a five-run inning that sent the Blue Jays into the eighth with a commanding lead. That blow was the single most impactful play of the game by WPA, and Guerrero finished the night as the top batter overall at plus 43.0% WPA and plus 3.4 RE24. Boston, however, answered in the eighth against Zach Pop, with Romy Gonzalez delivering a key single worth 25.3% in win probability as the Red Sox rallied for four runs to pull within one. The decisive moment came in the bottom of the ninth when Jarren Duran singled off Pop to drive in the winning run, a hit worth 28.4% in win probability that completed the comeback. Duran finished second among batters at plus 29.9% WPA, while Kenley Jansen led all pitchers with plus 13.5% WPA in preserving the win.