Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins defeated the Seattle Mariners 6-4 on June 23, 2024, at loanDepot park, completing a convincing home victory that saw the DiamondIQ model's win probability climb from a pre-game estimate of 33 percent all the way to 100 percent by game's end. Miami struck early and often, plating four runs in the first inning and adding one more in the second to build a commanding early cushion. Seattle managed two-run responses in the fourth and seventh innings, but never threatened to erase the deficit in a meaningful way.

The game's most consequential sequence came in the first two innings, where small plays carried outsized probability swings. Otto Lopez's groundout in the bottom of the first registered a win-probability shift of plus 12.7 percent, reflecting how Miami's early run production immediately tilted the odds in the home team's favor. A counterpoint arrived in the top of the second when Mitch Garver's forceout off Kyle Tyler carried a minus 14.4 percent swing, briefly checking Seattle's momentum — though Bryan De La Cruz answered on the offensive side when a caught stealing in the bottom of the second produced a plus 14.0 percent swing in Miami's favor. Late in the game, Cal Raleigh drew a walk in the ninth off Tanner Scott that registered plus 9.9 percent, but Ryan Bliss's subsequent flyout at minus 9.0 percent ended any remaining Seattle threat.

On the individual ledger, Kyle Tyler led all pitchers with a plus 18.8 percent WPA contribution, with Calvin Faucher and A.J. Puk adding plus 8.1 and plus 6.8 percent respectively to anchor a Miami staff that held firm throughout. Offensively, Otto Lopez led Miami batters at plus 11.5 percent WPA, followed by Bryan De La Cruz at plus 10.2 percent. Cal Raleigh paced Seattle with plus 8.1 percent WPA and a modest positive RE24 of plus 0.5, though his efforts came too late to alter the outcome.