Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies handled the Arizona Diamondbacks 4-1 at Citizens Bank Park on June 23, 2024, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate anticipated from the outset, with Philadelphia entering at a 71% pre-game win probability that climbed to 100% by the final out. Cristopher Sánchez was the central figure in the outcome, leading all pitchers with a WPA of plus-24.4%, anchoring a Phillies staff that collectively kept Arizona's offense to six hits and one run through nine innings. Slade Cecconi started for the Diamondbacks and actually contributed a positive WPA of plus-9.2% in a losing effort, limiting early damage despite a Nick Castellanos single in the second inning that added plus-5.2% win probability for Philadelphia.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the sixth, when David Dahl delivered a single off Justin Martinez that swung win probability plus-15.6% in Philadelphia's favor, the single largest play of the game by that measure. That hit was the pivot point in a two-run sixth that effectively put the contest out of reach, and Dahl finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-14.5% with a RE24 of plus-1.2. Arizona's best opportunities evaporated through self-inflicted damage, most notably Lourdes Gurriel Jr. grounding into a double play in the top of the fourth against Sánchez, a play that cost the Diamondbacks 9.1% in win probability and extinguished whatever threat they had mounted. Brandon Marsh and Bryson Stott added modest positive WPA contributions of plus-3.7% and plus-2.1% respectively for Philadelphia, while Brandon Hughes closed things out with a plus-7.0% WPA from the bullpen to complete a clean, controlled Phillies win.