San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the San Francisco Giants 9-4 at Busch Stadium on June 22, 2024, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected clearly as home win probability opened at 58% and closed at 100%. The Cardinals generated their runs in bunches, scoring twice in the first, three times in the fourth, and twice each in the sixth and seventh innings, while the Giants managed a three-spot in the first and a lone run in the third before going scoreless across the final six frames.

The decisive force in the game was Cardinals first baseman Alec Burleson, whose two home runs accounted for the largest win-probability swings of the contest. His fourth-inning blast off Jordan Hicks shifted win probability by plus 29.6 points, effectively seizing control of a game that had been relatively close through three innings. He followed that in the sixth with another home run, this time against Sean Hjelle, adding another plus 18.4 points to end the Giants' realistic hopes of a comeback. Burleson finished with a combined WPA of plus 51.6% and an RE24 of plus 4.6, making him the unambiguous driver of the Cardinals' margin. On the Giants' side, Michael Conforto provided the most meaningful positive contribution, his third-inning double off Miles Mikolas shifting win probability by plus 11.2 points and finishing with a WPA of plus 8.5% and an RE24 of plus 2.5.

Miles Mikolas led the Cardinals' pitching staff by WPA at plus 3.5%, with JoJo Romero and Ryan Fernandez each contributing positive figures in relief. Masyn Winn added a plus 5.4% WPA for St. Louis among position players, complementing Burleson's dominant showing. The Giants finished with ten hits but could not convert them into the kind of sustained offense needed to overcome an Cardinals lineup that was largely in control from the fourth inning onward.