Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 6-4 at Petco Park on June 22, 2024, in a game that was effectively decided in a single inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the contest giving the Padres a 47 percent home win probability, but by the end of the fourth inning that figure had climbed dramatically toward certainty, reaching 100 percent at the final out. San Diego's offense was silent through three innings before erupting for four runs in the bottom of the fourth against Carlos Rodriguez, a burst that shifted the game's entire complexion in a matter of moments.

The decisive sequence in the fourth was built around Jackson Merrill, whose home run off Rodriguez added 22.7 percent win probability in a single swing, the largest single-play swing of the game by a wide margin. Ha-Seong Kim followed with another home run off Rodriguez, adding a further 6.6 percent, and Donovan Solano contributed a single that added 4.0 percent to San Diego's growing advantage. On the Milwaukee side, the offense struggled to generate early traction, with William Contreras's strikeout in the third costing the Brewers 5.6 percent win probability and Joey Ortiz's groundout double play in the second removing another 5.3 percent. The Brewers added four runs in the ninth, but the outcome had long been settled.

Merrill finished as the game's standout performer with a WPA of plus 24.8 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.9, while Kim posted plus 4.4 percent WPA and Solano contributed plus 4.3 percent. On the mound, Randy Vásquez was the central figure for San Diego, producing plus 20.7 percent WPA by limiting Milwaukee through the early innings when the Padres were still building their lead. Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui each added positive contributions in relief, at plus 3.3 and plus 2.9 percent WPA respectively. Both clubs finished with 10 hits and no errors, but the timing of San Diego's damage made the final margin look closer than the game actually felt.