Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

The Detroit Tigers held off the Chicago White Sox 2-1 at Comerica Park on June 21, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 75% home win probability and closing at 100% after nine innings. Detroit's offense did its damage early, with Carson Kelly connecting on a two-run home run off Erick Fedde in the bottom of the second inning, a swing that added 11.6% to the Tigers' win probability and gave Detroit a lead it would not relinquish. Chicago's only answer came in the fifth, when Tommy Pham launched a solo home run off Jack Flaherty, a blow that added 10.7% to the White Sox's win probability and briefly tightened the contest to a one-run game.

The pitching staff carried Detroit the rest of the way, with Beau Brieske leading all pitchers at plus-20.8% WPA, followed closely by closer Jason Foley at plus-20.3%. Foley navigated a tense ninth inning in which Paul DeJong reached on a hit by pitch to nudge Chicago's chances upward by 7.6%, but Andrew Benintendi then grounded into a double play that swung the win probability 15.7% back toward Detroit and effectively closed the door. Fedde, despite surrendering the Kelly homer, still finished with a plus-19.7% WPA, a reflection of how efficiently he kept Chicago's lineup at bay beyond that second-inning sequence.

On the offensive ledger, Pham led White Sox batters with a plus-13.0% WPA and a plus-1.1 RE24, while Kelly paced Detroit's contributors with a plus-1.4 RE24 and plus-9.4% WPA. Colt Keith added a plus-5.0% WPA despite a negative RE24 of minus-0.2, his eighth-inning flyout against John Brebbia adding 7.8% to Detroit's probability by strand­ing a Chicago threat. The Tigers finished with five hits to Chicago's six but converted their opportunities with far greater efficiency in a tidy, low-scoring victory.