New York Mets at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets dismantled the Chicago Cubs 11-1 at Wrigley Field on June 21, 2024, scoring in each of the first four innings and rendering the outcome a formality well before the final out. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened the game with the Cubs holding a 53% win probability as the home side, but that figure collapsed steadily through the early frames and finished at 0% as New York piled up 14 hits against Chicago's staff.

The game's most consequential sequence unfolded across the first two innings, where the win-probability ledger swung sharply in New York's favor. Mark Vientos' lineout to open the Mets' half of the first actually represented a 6.4% swing in their direction, reflecting how quickly the situation was developing against Shota Imanaga. Brandon Nimmo's home run off Imanaga in the second inning added another 6.3% to New York's win probability, and J.D. Martinez's strikeout in that same half-inning contributed a 9.9% positive swing for the Mets, underscoring how thoroughly Chicago's early at-bats were wasted. On the Cubs' side, David Bote struck out with runners on in the bottom of the second, a moment the model measured as a 11.3% swing against Chicago, effectively the single most damaging play of the game.

Jose Quintana was the individual standout, generating 19.8% in win-probability added for New York while holding the Cubs to 1 run across his outing. Among position players, J.D. Martinez led with a combined WPA of plus-10.6 and a RE24 of plus-1.8, while Brandon Nimmo posted a WPA of plus-7.1 and led the group with a RE24 of plus-2.3. Jose Iglesias added a WPA of plus-5.4 alongside a RE24 of plus-2.8, rounding out a balanced offensive effort that the DiamondIQ model would have heavily favored in hindsight given the lopsided final margin.