MLB Recap · June 20, 2024

Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

AZ5
Final
WSH2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
AZ0003100015120
WSH001001000241

The Story

The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Washington Nationals 5-2 at Nationals Park on June 20, 2024, handing Washington a loss despite the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate giving the home side a 53% win probability. Arizona finished with 12 hits and no errors while holding Washington to just 4 hits, and the model's final estimate settled at 0% for the Nationals as the game concluded.

The decisive stretch came in the fourth inning, when Arizona broke open a scoreless tie against MacKenzie Gore. Randal Grichuk's double in the top of the fourth was the single most impactful offensive play of the game, swinging win probability by 20.4 percentage points in Arizona's favor. Tucker Barnhart followed with a single that added another 8.4 percentage points, helping Arizona plate three runs in the frame. Washington had briefly grabbed the lead in the bottom of the third on a Lane Thomas home run off Ryne Nelson, a swing worth 11.1 percentage points, but Arizona's fourth-inning surge erased that advantage decisively. Jesse Winker added a solo home run in the bottom of the sixth off Nelson worth 10.1 percentage points, and Kevin Newman's single in the fifth contributed an additional 7.4 percentage points to Arizona's cause, extending the lead to 4 runs at that point.

Among individual performers, Grichuk led all batters with a net WPA of plus 16.3% and an RE24 of plus 1.4, while Winker posted plus 11.7% WPA and plus 1.0 RE24 in a losing effort. On the mound, Ryne Nelson led Arizona's pitching staff with plus 16.9% WPA despite surrendering both Washington home runs, and Ryan Thompson contributed plus 13.3% WPA out of the bullpen to help close out the Nationals.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025AZ bats firstFinalWSH win %AZ win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 53.3% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Randal Grichuk Double
Top 4th · off MacKenzie Gore
+20.4%
Lane Thomas Home Run
Bot 3rd · off Ryne Nelson
+11.1%
Jesse Winker Home Run
Bot 6th · off Ryne Nelson
+10.1%
Tucker Barnhart Single
Top 4th · off MacKenzie Gore
+8.4%
Kevin Newman Single
Top 5th · off MacKenzie Gore
+7.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Randal Grichuk+16.3%+1.4 RE24
Jesse Winker+11.7%+1.0 RE24
Kevin Newman+9.5%+0.8 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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