Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres walked off with a 7-6 victory over the Milwaukee Brewers on June 20, 2024, at Petco Park in a game that swung wildly in its final innings. The DiamondIQ model entered with San Diego as a slight underdog at 45% pre-game win probability, but that figure climbed to 100% by the time the final out was recorded, underscoring just how dramatically the late innings reshuffled the outcome.

The pivotal sequence arrived in the ninth inning. Rhys Hoskins gave Milwaukee a significant jolt with a double off Jeremiah Estrada in the top half, a hit that swung win probability 34.0 points in the Brewers' favor and put San Diego in serious jeopardy. The Brewers had also done damage earlier, with Willy Adames connecting on a home run off Adam Mazur in the top of the fifth for a +17.8% swing, while a Gary Sánchez strikeout against Wandy Peralta in the top of the seventh represented a 12.2-point reversal against Milwaukee's interests. But none of those moments proved decisive. Jake Cronenworth erased everything in the bottom of the ninth, launching a walk-off home run off Joel Payamps that produced the single largest win-probability swing of the game at +45.9%, turning near-certain defeat into an immediate celebration. Fernando Tatis Jr. had also kept San Diego within reach with a fifth-inning home run off Bryse Wilson worth +11.3%.

By accumulated WPA, Cronenworth was the clear game-defining performer at +44.5%, with Hoskins finishing second at +30.8% despite being on the losing side, and Adames contributing +16.8% for Milwaukee. On the pitching side, Adrian Morejon led Padres relievers at +7.8%, with Wandy Peralta and Jared Koenig each adding +6.4%. The DiamondIQ model leaned toward the Brewers through much of the final inning before Cronenworth's blast made the final probability swing absolute.