MLB Recap · June 19, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

STL3
Final
MIA4

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
STL0200001003100
MIA200001001481

The Story

The Miami Marlins walked off the St. Louis Cardinals 4-3 on June 19, 2024, at loanDepot park, completing a comeback that carried the DiamondIQ model's win probability from a pre-game estimate of 38 percent in Miami's favor all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The Marlins fell behind before rallying, with Miami scoring twice in the first inning, St. Louis answering with two runs in the second, and the game remaining tight through the middle innings before a Cardinals run in the seventh and a Miami run in the sixth set the stage for a decisive ninth.

The single most consequential play of the night came in the bottom of the ninth, when Otto Lopez lined a walk-off single off Ryan Fernandez that swung win probability by 37.9 percentage points in Miami's favor, instantly the largest swing of the game and the decisive blow. Earlier, Paul Goldschmidt had benefited from a fielding error in the top of the seventh that added 13.6 percentage points for St. Louis, briefly tightening the Cardinals' grip on the game. But Brendan Donovan's groundout in the top of the eighth against Huascar Brazobán swung probability 14.9 points back toward Miami, stalling what could have been a Cardinals go-ahead rally.

On the individual side, Lopez finished as the game's highest-impact batter with a WPA of plus-31.0 and an RE24 of plus-0.4, while Dane Myers contributed plus-10.4 WPA and plus-0.5 RE24 in support. Goldschmidt led Cardinals batters with plus-10.2 WPA and plus-0.9 RE24 despite the loss. On the pitching side, Kyle Leahy led all pitchers with plus-20.4 WPA, followed by A.J. Puk at plus-16.7 and Yonny Chirinos at plus-13.6 as Miami's staff held St. Louis to three runs on ten hits with no errors committed by the Cardinals.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025STL bats firstFinalMIA win %STL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 38.1% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Otto Lopez Single
Bot 9th · off Ryan Fernandez
+37.9%
Brendan Donovan Groundout
Top 8th · off Huascar Brazobán
-14.9%
Paul Goldschmidt Field Error
Top 7th · off Huascar Brazobán
+13.6%
Matt Carpenter Double
Top 4th · off Yonny Chirinos
+11.1%
Michael Siani Fielders Choice Out
Top 4th · off Yonny Chirinos
-9.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Otto Lopez+31.0%+0.4 RE24
Dane Myers+10.4%+0.5 RE24
Paul Goldschmidt+10.2%+0.9 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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