Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins walked off with a 7-6 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays on June 18, 2024, at Target Field, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate moved from a 63% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% by game's end. Tampa Bay jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the first inning, and the Rays carried that advantage into the fourth before Minnesota mounted its decisive response.

The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the fourth, where Willi Castro delivered a double off Aaron Civale that added 21.4% to the Twins' win probability, and Trevor Larnach followed with another double off Civale worth 14.9%, capping a four-run frame that flipped the game's momentum. The Rays answered with two runs in the fifth, and Minnesota matched them with two of their own, including a Max Kepler home run off Shawn Armstrong that added 12.4% to the home side's probability. The score remained knotted through the eighth before Carlos Santana settled things with a walk-off single off Phil Maton in the bottom of the ninth, a hit that alone swung win probability by 37.9% and proved to be the game's single most consequential at-bat.

Among the standout performers, Santana led all position players with a WPA of plus-37.9% and a RE24 of plus-1.0, while Willi Castro contributed plus-19.1% WPA and the game's best RE24 at plus-3.1. Carlos Correa added plus-15.4% WPA and plus-1.3 RE24. On the pitching side, Jhoan Duran paced Minnesota's relievers with plus-13.5% WPA, with Jason Adam at plus-10.9% and Griffin Jax at plus-10.6% rounding out an effective late-game bullpen effort that protected the lead long enough for Santana to end it.