San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies rallied past the San Diego Padres 4-3 at Citizens Bank Park on June 18, 2024, completing a comeback that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a 72 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The Phillies trailed entering the ninth inning, held to a single run through eight frames while San Diego had surged ahead with three runs in the sixth on Luis Campusano's home run off Aaron Nola, the swing adding 21.8 percent win probability in the Padres' favor and representing the decisive blow of the middle innings. Philadelphia's Kyle Schwarber provided a brief answer with a solo home run off Wandy Peralta in the eighth, adding 17.3 percent win probability, but the Phillies still faced a two-run deficit heading into their final at-bats.

The ninth inning against Robert Suarez unraveled quickly for San Diego. Nick Castellanos opened the frame with a double that added 18.4 percent win probability, setting the table for the decisive sequence. Alec Bohm followed with a single that swung the model's estimate by 26.5 percent, the single largest probability shift of the game, and Bryson Stott delivered the winning blow with a single of his own that added another 22.8 percent. The Phillies scored two runs in the frame to complete the walk-off victory.

Stott finished as the top performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a 24.7 percent WPA and a 0.7 RE24, while Castellanos contributed 20.8 percent WPA and led position players with a 1.7 RE24. On the Padres side, Campusano's 18.8 percent WPA and 1.2 RE24 underscored how pivotal his sixth-inning home run appeared before the collapse. Among pitchers, Michael King led all arms with a 15.9 percent WPA contribution for Philadelphia, with Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon adding 8.8 and 8.0 percent respectively as the Phillies bullpen held San Diego scoreless across the final three innings to preserve the comeback conditions.