Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Seattle Mariners overcame a 58 percent pre-game win probability for the home side and defeated the Cleveland Guardians 8-5 at Progressive Field on June 18, 2024, completing a swing in the DiamondIQ model's estimate from that initial Cleveland lean all the way to zero percent by the final out. Seattle scored in six of nine innings and produced 11 hits to control the contest from the middle frames onward.

The decisive moment of the game arrived in the top of the third inning, when the Mariners erupted for four runs against Triston McKenzie and Tim Herrin in a sequence that reshaped the game's probability landscape. J.P. Crawford's home run off McKenzie was the single largest swing of the night at plus-16.8 percent win probability, and Cal Raleigh followed with a double off McKenzie worth plus-7.7 percent. After Tim Herrin entered, Mitch Garver extended the damage with a double that added another plus-10.2 percent. Those three plays alone accounted for a combined 34.7 percentage points of win probability shifting toward Seattle in a single inning. Cleveland managed a pair of responses — two runs in the bottom of the sixth headlined by a Daniel Schneemann walk that generated plus-6.5 percent for the Guardians, and a Tyler Freeman hit by pitch off Trent Thornton in the eighth that added plus-7.4 percent — but neither rally was enough to close the gap.

Crawford finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-19.8 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.3, anchoring the Seattle offensive effort. Will Brennan contributed plus-15.3 percent WPA and plus-1.6 RE24, while Dylan Moore added plus-9.8 percent WPA and plus-1.2 RE24. On the pitching side, Andrés Muñoz led Seattle's staff at plus-8.2 percent WPA, with Austin Voth and Bryce Miller each contributing positively at plus-3.7 and plus-3.1 percent respectively, helping the Mariners secure the road victory.