MLB Recap · June 17, 2024

San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

SD2
Final
PHI9

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
SD000010100270
PHI00213210-9181

The Story

The Philadelphia Phillies routed the San Diego Padres 9-2 at Citizens Bank Park on June 17, 2024, in a game that was never truly in doubt. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving Philadelphia a 71% win probability, and by the final out that estimate had climbed to 100%, reflecting just how thoroughly the Phillies controlled the contest. Philadelphia finished with 18 hits against San Diego's 7, and while the Padres committed no errors, the Phillies' offensive depth made the margin feel even wider than the scoreline suggests.

The decisive sequence arrived early and built quickly. In the bottom of the third, Kyle Schwarber turned on a Randy Vásquez offering for a home run, the single most impactful play of the game according to the DiamondIQ model at plus 16.2% win probability added. Vásquez continued to struggle in the fifth, surrendering an Alec Bohm home run worth plus 8.3% in win probability and a Bryce Harper double that added another plus 6.5%. The Padres managed a brief counterpunch in the top of the fifth when Manny Machado singled off Cristopher Sánchez to produce a plus 6.0% swing, though it amounted to little in the broader context of the game.

Schwarber led all batters with a plus 15.9% WPA and a RE24 of plus 3.3, making him the clear offensive catalyst for Philadelphia. Machado was the top performer for San Diego by WPA at plus 7.8%, while Rafael Marchán contributed plus 7.7% WPA and plus 2.2 RE24 for the Phillies. On the mound, Cristopher Sánchez was the standout arm, posting a plus 3.7% WPA, with José Ruiz and Wandy Peralta each finishing at plus 0.0% in relief.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025SD bats firstFinalPHI win %SD win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 71.2% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Kyle Schwarber Home Run
Bot 3rd · off Randy Vásquez
+16.2%
David Dahl Strikeout
Bot 2nd · off Randy Vásquez
-8.9%
Alec Bohm Home Run
Bot 5th · off Randy Vásquez
+8.3%
Bryce Harper Double
Bot 5th · off Randy Vásquez
+6.5%
Manny Machado Single
Top 5th · off Cristopher Sánchez
+6.0%

Top Batters by WPA

Kyle Schwarber+15.9%+3.3 RE24
Manny Machado+7.8%+0.1 RE24
Rafael Marchán+7.7%+2.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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