New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox handed the New York Yankees a 9-3 defeat at Fenway Park on June 16, 2024, a game that shifted decisively in Boston's favor well before the final out. The DiamondIQ model opened with a pre-game home win probability of just 37% for the Red Sox, but that figure climbed steadily before reaching 100% by game's end. Boston collected 14 hits against New York's 6, and the Yankees compounded their troubles with an error that directly influenced the contest's most consequential sequence.

The game's pivotal stretch came in the seventh inning, where the win-probability needle swung sharply in both directions before ultimately landing in Boston's corner. Anthony Rizzo reached on a fielding error off Brennan Bernardino, a play that added 12.4% to New York's win probability and briefly offered the Yankees a foothold, but Zack Kelly answered by striking out Jose Trevino, a swing that erased 12.0% from New York's chances, and retired DJ LeMahieu on a lineout, costing the Yankees another 10.4%. Kelly finished as the game's most impactful pitcher by a wide margin, accumulating 30.7% in win probability added. The Red Sox then turned the seventh inning into an offensive statement of their own, with Connor Wong delivering a triple off Luke Weaver that added 10.8% to Boston's probability. Earlier, in the second inning, Ceddanne Rafaela singled off Marcus Stroman for a 14.3% win-probability swing, seeding Boston's momentum.

Among position players, Rob Refsnyder led all batters with 19.4% in win probability added and a RE24 of plus-2.4, followed closely by Rafaela at plus-14.2% WPA and plus-2.3 RE24. Kutter Crawford and Tommy Kahnle also contributed positively on the mound for Boston, adding 8.5% and 5.3% in win probability respectively. The Yankees never found sustained traction, scoring their three runs across just two innings while the Red Sox spread nine across seven frames in a thorough, wire-to-wire victory.