San Diego Padres at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the San Diego Padres 11-6 on June 16, 2024, at Citi Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win entering the game at 52% and closing at 100% as New York pulled away decisively. The Mets struck first in the opening inning, plating four runs, and added three more in the fourth to build a comfortable advantage before the game's most volatile stretch arrived in the eighth inning.

The eighth proved to be the pivotal frame on both sides. Ha-Seong Kim delivered a double off Drew Smith that swung win probability 17.4 points in San Diego's favor, representing the single largest win-probability play of the game, while a subsequent Jackson Merrill walk off Jake Diekman added another 8.7 points to the Padres' ledger. However, Fernando Tatis Jr. struck out against Drew Smith, costing San Diego 10.8 points of win probability and blunting the rally's momentum. New York answered in the bottom of the eighth when Luis Torrens launched a home run off Jeremiah Estrada, a swing worth 12.0 points of win probability that helped seal the outcome. Torrens finished as the Mets' top offensive contributor by WPA at plus-12.9, while Kim led San Diego at plus-12.7 despite the loss.

Tylor Megill was the most impactful performer on the mound, finishing with a plus-16.3 WPA to lead all pitchers. His early command was on display in the second inning when a Luis Arraez forceout cost San Diego 8.4 points of win probability, underscoring how effectively Megill neutralized scoring threats. Adrian Houser and Yuki Matsui contributed positive WPA figures in relief as New York's pitching staff combined to hold the Padres in check outside of the chaotic eighth, completing a wire-to-wire win in which the model never wavered toward San Diego after the opening frame.