St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals held off the Chicago Cubs 2-1 at Wrigley Field on June 16, 2024, handing Chicago a loss despite the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a 51 percent pre-game home win probability for the Cubs. St. Louis scored both of its runs in the second inning and then spent the remainder of the game protecting that slim advantage, while Chicago managed just a single run in the seventh and could not add to it despite late opportunities.

The decisive sequence came in the final innings, where individual plate appearances swung the game's probability dramatically in both directions. Michael Busch's single off Ryan Fernandez in the seventh shifted win probability 14.1 percent toward Chicago and set up the Cubs' lone run, briefly making it a one-run contest. The Cubs threatened further in the ninth against closer Ryan Helsley, with Ian Happ drawing a walk that added 12.3 percent to Chicago's win probability, but Nico Hoerner's flyout removed 11.9 percent of that cushion and ultimately ended the threat. The most damaging swing of the game came one inning earlier, when Seiya Suzuki struck out against Andrew Kittredge in the eighth, a swing of negative 19.9 percent that effectively deflated Chicago's best late chance.

On the pitching side, Miles Mikolas was the game's standout performer, contributing 33.2 percent to St. Louis's cumulative win probability, the highest single mark of the night by a significant margin. Kittredge added 23.3 percent with his crucial eighth-inning work, and Drew Smyly contributed 11.6 percent in relief. For Chicago's offense, Ian Happ led all batters with a cumulative WPA of plus 21.7 percent and a run expectancy of plus 0.9, while Patrick Wisdom posted 18.8 percent WPA despite a negative RE24 of minus 0.4, reflecting his lineout in the ninth that, while costly in context, came with Chicago already deep in a deficit of probability the Cubs could not overcome.