Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins held off the Oakland Athletics 8-7 at Target Field on June 15, 2024, in a back-and-forth game that saw the lead change hands multiple times before Minnesota ultimately secured the win. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with Minnesota as a heavy favorite at 73% pre-game home win probability, and that estimate climbed to 100% by the final out, though the path there was far from clean.

The decisive blow came in the bottom of the eighth inning when Jose Miranda connected on a home run off Dany Jiménez, a swing that shifted win probability by 21.4 percentage points and proved to be the game's single biggest play. Minnesota had needed the cushion after Oakland's offense refused to go quietly. In the top of the seventh, Shea Langeliers delivered a single off Louis Varland that swung win probability 15.8 points in Oakland's favor, keeping the Athletics within striking distance. Earlier, Trevor Larnach had given Minnesota a boost with an eleventh-percent swing via a second-inning home run off Joey Estes, while Tyler Soderstrom countered in the third with a home run off Chris Paddack worth 10.6 points for Oakland. A potentially pivotal moment came in the bottom of the fifth when Austin Martin grounded into a double play off Lucas Erceg, costing Minnesota 10.4 points of win probability and stalling a potential rally.

Among individual performers, JJ Bleday led all batters with a 22.8% WPA alongside a 1.5 RE24, while Soderstrom posted a team-high 2.1 RE24 and 17.1% WPA despite ending up on the losing side. Miranda finished at plus-18.3% WPA for Minnesota. On the mound, Griffin Jax led all pitchers with 15.2% WPA, followed by Josh Staumont at plus-12.4%, as the Twins bullpen ultimately did enough to protect the one-run margin.