New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox handed the New York Yankees a convincing 8-4 defeat at Fenway Park on June 15, 2024, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate barely anticipated heading into first pitch, with Boston's pre-game home win probability set at just 36 percent. The Red Sox turned that long-shot outlook into a foregone conclusion early, scoring three runs in the bottom of the first and adding two more in the second to seize control before New York could settle in. By game's end, the model's estimate had moved to 100 percent in Boston's favor, a reflection of how thoroughly the Red Sox dominated across nine innings.

The most consequential sequence of the game unfolded in the first two innings, driven heavily by Yankees starter Carlos Rodón's early struggles. Rafael Devers delivered the single biggest positive swing of the night with a double in the bottom of the second, adding 12.5 percent to Boston's win probability. Earlier, Bobby Dalbec's strikeout to lead off the bottom of the first paradoxically boosted Boston's chances by 9.8 percent, a number that reflects how the model recalibrated around the inning's broader context with runners already threatening. On the Yankees' side, Anthony Volpe's strikeout in the top of the second cost New York 8.5 percent in win probability against Cooper Criswell, and Giancarlo Stanton's punchout against Justin Slaten in the fifth drained another 8.3 percent from New York's dwindling chances.

Boston's pitching staff was central to the outcome. Cooper Criswell led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-14.9 percent, while Kenley Jansen added plus-8.8 percent in support. Devers led Red Sox batters with a WPA of plus-11.4 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.4, while Juan Soto contributed plus-9.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.2 for New York in a losing effort. Boston finished with 12 hits against the Yankees' six, and the model leaned decisively toward the Red Sox from the opening frame onward.