Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 3 | 4 | 0 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Cincinnati Reds 3-1 on June 15, 2024, at American Family Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 64% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% by the final out. The game was a pitching-dominated affair through four scoreless innings before Milwaukee broke it open decisively in the bottom of the fifth, and Cincinnati never recovered.
The pivotal sequence came in that fifth inning, when Joey Ortiz delivered a home run off Andrew Abbott that represented the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 20.7%. A Brice Turang walk in the same frame added another 5.9% to Milwaukee's chances, and the three-run inning effectively ended the competitive portion of the contest. Cincinnati's offense squandered opportunities in the earlier going, with Jonathan India grounding into a double play in the top of the fifth carrying a negative 9.5% win-probability impact, and Jake Fraley doing the same in the fourth at minus 6.1%, both off Brewers starter Bryse Wilson. The Reds managed their lone run in the ninth but finished with just five hits on the night.
Ortiz was the clear standout performer, finishing with a plus 17.5% WPA and plus 1.5 RE24 on the strength of his go-ahead blast. Nick Martini contributed a plus 4.3% WPA and Jackson Chourio added plus 2.7% WPA to round out Milwaukee's offensive contributors. On the mound, Bryse Wilson led all pitchers with a plus 20.3% WPA, keeping Cincinnati off the board across his innings of work, while Bryan Hudson added plus 9.5% WPA in relief. The Brewers needed only four hits to win comfortably, a testament to how thoroughly Wilson and the bullpen suppressed Cincinnati's lineup.