Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves handled the Tampa Bay Rays convincingly at Truist Park on June 15, 2024, winning 9-2 in a game that was effectively decided by a five-run fifth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with Atlanta holding a 63 percent home win probability, and that estimate climbed to 100 percent by the final out as the Braves produced all the offense they needed in two decisive frames.

The fifth inning was the turning point, and the model's win-probability figures make that plain. Jarred Kelenic's home run off Ryan Pepiot was the single most impactful offensive play of the game, swinging win probability by plus 23.9 percent. Marcell Ozuna followed with another home run off Pepiot, adding another plus 19.6 percent swing, and Matt Olson contributed a third home run in the same inning for an additional plus 6.3 percent. Pepiot absorbed the damage from all three blasts as Atlanta turned a close game into a comfortable lead in one burst. The Braves added three more runs in the seventh and one in the eighth to close at 9-2, with Tampa Bay's only meaningful offensive contributions coming in the first and ninth innings.

On the individual side, Kelenic led all batters with a plus 25.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.9, while Ozuna posted plus 18.2 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.2, making the two of them the clear architects of the win at the plate. Sean Murphy contributed a plus 9.0 percent WPA as well. On the mound, Charlie Morton was the standout, finishing with a plus 12.0 percent WPA to pace Atlanta's pitching staff. Two early negative plays — Adam Duvall's double play in the second at minus 10.0 percent and Yandy Diaz's groundout double play in the third at minus 7.2 percent — briefly stalled momentum for both sides, but the Braves ultimately overwhelmed a Rays club that managed just six hits and no errors on the afternoon.