MLB Recap · June 15, 2024

Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

TEX5
Final
SEA7

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
TEX000010004591
SEA10300012-771

The Story

The Seattle Mariners defeated the Texas Rangers 7-5 at T-Mobile Park on June 15, 2024, building a commanding lead that held through a late Texas rally. The DiamondIQ model entered the game favoring Seattle at 64% and finished at 100% after the Mariners methodically extended their advantage across the middle innings.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the third, where Seattle did its most damaging work against Nathan Eovaldi. Julio Rodríguez delivered the game's single biggest swing, a home run that shifted win probability by 15.9 percentage points, and Dominic Canzone followed with a single that added another 5.9 points, capping a three-run frame that gave Seattle a lead it would not relinquish. Josh Rojas extended the margin further in the bottom of the seventh with a home run off Jonathan Hernández, a play worth 3.8 percentage points. Texas managed its most meaningful moment in the top of the fifth, when Marcus Semien doubled off George Kirby to generate a 4.4-point swing, but the Rangers could not convert sustained pressure, and a Travis Jankowski strikeout in the fourth had already cost the visitors 3.5 points of win probability against Kirby.

Rodríguez finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a combined WPA of plus-16.0 and an RE24 of plus-1.6, while Rojas contributed plus-6.9 WPA and a game-high plus-2.8 RE24. On the mound, Kirby led all pitchers with plus-12.2 WPA, supported by Trent Thornton at plus-4.7 and Brock Burke at plus-4.5 as the Seattle bullpen preserved the two-run margin through a four-run Texas ninth that made the final score closer than the game itself ever felt.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025TEX bats firstFinalSEA win %TEX win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 64.1% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Julio Rodríguez Home Run
Bot 3rd · off Nathan Eovaldi
+15.9%
Dominic Canzone Single
Bot 3rd · off Nathan Eovaldi
+5.9%
Marcus Semien Double
Top 5th · off George Kirby
+4.4%
Josh Rojas Home Run
Bot 7th · off Jonathan Hernández
+3.8%
Travis Jankowski Strikeout
Top 4th · off George Kirby
-3.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Julio Rodríguez+16.0%+1.6 RE24
Josh Rojas+6.9%+2.8 RE24
Dominic Canzone+3.8%+0.8 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
Open Game Center →