St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 5-1 at Wrigley Field on June 15, 2024, in a game that remained tight through three scoreless innings before Chicago began pulling away. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 53 percent home win probability that ultimately closed at 100 percent, reflecting how thoroughly the Cubs controlled the contest. St. Louis finished with just four hits and committed one error, while Chicago collected nine hits without an error across nine innings.

The decisive offensive moments were concentrated in the fourth and seventh innings. In the bottom of the fourth, Dansby Swanson's groundout off Chris Roycroft added 12.6 percent to Chicago's win probability, a sign that the Cubs were manufacturing pressure even on outs during a two-run frame. The biggest single play of the game came in the bottom of the seventh, when Ian Happ hit a home run off John King that swung win probability by 24.3 percent, capping a three-run inning that effectively ended any realistic Cardinals comeback. Chicago's scoring was offset at times by costly outs, including a grounded-into-double-play by Mike Tauchman in the third that cost 7.9 percent win probability and a similar twin killing by Christopher Morel in the fifth that cost 7.2 percent.

Among individual performers, Happ led all batters with a 23.9 percent WPA and a 2.9 RE24, making him the clear offensive catalyst. Swanson added 13.5 percent WPA and 0.9 RE24, while Nolan Arenado contributed 10.1 percent WPA and 0.8 RE24 on the Cardinals side. On the mound, Shota Imanaga led all pitchers with a 24.9 percent WPA, and Kyle Leahy contributed 12.2 percent in relief for Chicago. The model leaned toward the Cubs entering the game, and their execution through the middle and late innings validated that projection decisively.