Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 5 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds escaped American Family Field with a 6-5 victory over the Milwaukee Brewers on June 14, 2024, overcoming five errors and a late Milwaukee surge to hand the Brewers a loss despite the DiamondIQ model entering the game with a 63 percent home win probability for Milwaukee. Cincinnati built its lead incrementally, scoring in the third, fourth, and fifth innings before Milwaukee rallied with two runs in the bottom of the ninth to make things interesting. The Reds finished with 10 hits against Milwaukee's 8, though Cincinnati's five errors kept the door open for the Brewers throughout.
The decisive moments were concentrated in the fifth inning and the ninth. In the top of the fifth, Elly De La Cruz delivered a triple off Freddy Peralta that carried a win-probability swing of plus 15.4 percent, part of a three-run frame that gave Cincinnati meaningful separation. William Contreras had provided Milwaukee's earliest jolt with a home run off Hunter Greene in the third, a swing worth plus 11.2 percent in win probability from the Brewers' perspective. The ninth inning became the most analytically significant stretch of the game, as Alexis Díaz worked through a tense sequence. Jackson Chourio's single carried a minus 25.1 percent swing against Cincinnati, but Joey Ortiz's walk shifted the needle back plus 21.3 percent in Milwaukee's favor before Blake Perkins' bunt pop out effectively closed the door, producing a plus 31.6 percent swing for the Reds and collapsing Milwaukee's win probability to zero.
Among position players, Joey Ortiz, TJ Friedl, and Blake Perkins each finished with WPA figures around plus 20.8 to 20.9 percent, though Ortiz led with a plus 1.5 RE24 and Friedl posted the best run-environment figure at plus 1.9 RE24. On the mound, Hunter Greene led Cincinnati pitchers with a plus 8.9 percent WPA contribution, followed by Justin Wilson at plus 6.3 percent and Fernando Cruz at plus 5.2 percent. The DiamondIQ model's final win probability settled at zero percent for Milwaukee, reflecting how decisively the Brewers' late-inning rally fell short.